Texas State University, in collaboration with the Austin Police Department, has completed a comprehensive study examining deaths that occurred in and around Lady Bird Lake over the past two decades.

The Austin Police Department is aware of the study and welcomed the additional analysis conducted by Texas State University. This collaboration reflects a shared commitment to ensuring that the facts surrounding these incidents are clearly understood.

Researchers at Texas State University’s Center for Geospatial Intelligence and Investigation, led by Dr. Kim Rossmo, conducted an independent, evidence-based analysis of 189 drowning cases from 2004 to 2025. Of these, 54 cases were reviewed in greater detail. The study found:

There is no evidence of a serial murderer. Neither direct nor indirect signs of a serial predator were identified. The frequency of incidents has remained relatively stable over the past nine years, varying between two and five drownings annually. The temporal and spatial patterns showed no clustering that would indicate a single offender. Over the 22-year study period, only eight cases occurred near the Rainey Street District, which is an average of about one every 32 months.

The causes are consistent with accidental drownings. The Travis County Medical Examiner’s Office determined the cases to be accidental drownings, with alcohol identified as a common factor. Investigators found no medicolegal evidence to suggest bridge-pushing or other foul play. National data also show that homicidal drownings are extremely rare, accounting for only 0.2% of murders in the United States, and serial murderers almost never drown their victims.

The patterns are consistent with statewide and international data. The number of drownings in Austin aligns with overall drowning risks in Texas, which average 352 incidents annually. 78% involve males, predominantly between the ages of 22 and 44. Similar patterns have been documented in other locations, including the Great Lakes, Australia, Canada, and the United Kingdom, where alcohol consumption and access to water increase the risk of accidental drowning. Population growth, rising alcohol sales in entertainment districts, and heavy use of Lady Bird Lake for recreation were also found to be contributing factors.

The complete report from Texas State University is available online at: https://hdl.handle.net/10877/21901

Austin Police detectives conducted thorough investigations into each case and found no indication of foul play. While social media speculation has suggested otherwise, the independent academic study supports the findings of APD investigations and confirms that Austin is not facing a serial killer. The study reinforces what APD detectives have consistently found through detailed investigative work: each case has been carefully reviewed, and no evidence of a serial offender has ever been identified.

“Austin Police detectives are committed to fully investigating every case to ensure community safety and provide answers to families,” said Chief Lisa Davis. “We appreciate the expertise Texas State University brought to this project, and their findings reinforce our own investigative work.”

APD will continue to work with city and community partners to reduce risks associated with drowning, particularly in areas with high foot traffic near water. Past efforts such as improved trail safety in the Rainey Street District have already reduced drowning incidents in that area.

The Austin Police Department remains committed to transparency, evidence-based practices, and the safety of all Austinites.